Probabilistic Forecasting of Volcanic Eruptions
What do an actuary and a volcanologist have in common? Both try to predict rare events with enormous consequences. This note reviews how eruption intervals for Popocatepetl and Galeras are modeled with log-normal distributions, Markov models, and renewal processes. The open questions at the end are genuinely fascinating. Personal applied probability note.
Download material
Related notes
Time Series: Delhi Temperature
Five years of Delhi temperature told through data: finding the seasonal pattern hidden in the noise, separating real trend from random variation, and building a model in R that can anticipate what comes next. The kind of exercise where statistics stops being abstract and becomes weather. Course project for Survival Analysis and Time Series, UNAM.
A/B Testing: Bayesian vs Frequentist
Same question, two ways of thinking: the classical approach says there's not enough evidence, the Bayesian one says B is almost certainly better. This summary explores what happens when you stop relying solely on the p-value and start thinking in terms of expected utility to decide. Personal statistical exploration project. Available in both languages.