3 notes
Same question, two ways of thinking: the classical approach says there's not enough evidence, the Bayesian one says B is almost certainly better. This summary explores what happens when you stop relying solely on the p-value and start thinking in terms of expected utility to decide. Personal statistical exploration project. Available in both languages.
Five years of Delhi temperature told through data: finding the seasonal pattern hidden in the noise, separating real trend from random variation, and building a model in R that can anticipate what comes next. The kind of exercise where statistics stops being abstract and becomes weather. Course project for Survival Analysis and Time Series, UNAM.
What do an actuary and a volcanologist have in common? Both try to predict rare events with enormous consequences. This note reviews how eruption intervals for Popocatepetl and Galeras are modeled with log-normal distributions, Markov models, and renewal processes. The open questions at the end are genuinely fascinating. Personal applied probability note.