← Back to notes
Statistics & Probability Created: June 15, 2025 v10

A/B Testing: Bayesian vs Frequentist

Same question, two ways of thinking: the classical approach says there's not enough evidence, the Bayesian one says B is almost certainly better. This summary explores what happens when you stop relying solely on the p-value and start thinking in terms of expected utility to decide. Personal statistical exploration project. Available in both languages.

StatisticsBayesPython

Download material

Resumen ES Summary EN

Related notes

Statistics & Probability

Probabilistic Forecasting of Volcanic Eruptions

What do an actuary and a volcanologist have in common? Both try to predict rare events with enormous consequences. This note reviews how eruption intervals for Popocatepetl and Galeras are modeled with log-normal distributions, Markov models, and renewal processes. The open questions at the end are genuinely fascinating. Personal applied probability note.
← Back to notes